US-IOWA-Republicans have only won Iowa once since Ronald Reagan – in 2004, when George Bush eked out a win by 10,000 of more than 1.5 million votes. And yet, among the traditional battleground states, Iowa has become perhaps Trump’s best hope of a win. While national polls show the Republican behind his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, recent Iowa polls have the candidates neck and neck.

Trump’s strong position is in part due to the fact that unlike in other swing states, the Iowan Republican establishment has rallied conclusively behind him.

On Saturday at the Roast and Ride, a fundraiser featuring pork sandwiches and motorcycles held on behalf of the freshman senator Joni Ernst, every major Iowa Republican was present. All three US representatives and both senators rallied behind Trump. So did Terry Branstad, the longest-serving governor in American history.