The issue of participation in the primary to the right sharpens the rivalry between Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppe, accused by his opponent to prepare a “soft alternation” for invited “disappointed hollandisme” and voters from the center to vote.

The equation is known: limited participation in the vote would favor the former president, whose target heart remains the Republican electorate, with calls from the foot sympathizers of the National Front, while a wide open vote would give the advantage Alain Juppe, acclaimed in the polls by voters from the center or left.


According to Kantar Sofres survey Onepoint on primary 20 and 27 November broadcast Tuesday, Alain Juppe widening the gap with Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round (39% of voting intentions against 34%) with an assumption of participation 2, 9 million voters.

In the event of a lower participation (1.8 million voters), the mayor of Bordeaux is credited with 40% and its rival 36%.

“What is important in a campaign, it is not the decibels”

In 2011, during the primary socialist investiture, more than 2.6 million voters had moved the first round, more than 2.8 million in the second.

MP Thierry Solère Republicans in charge of organizing the primary, announced Wednesday that more than 20,000 French nationals abroad were already enrolled in the primary, almost eight times more than expatriates joining LR.

French expatriates, who will vote by internet to primary must register prior to 16 October. “It’s a very special election because we do not know the electorate. I suspect we will have a much greater mobilization in the second round than in the first ” , Justice Gilles Boyer, the campaign manager Alain Juppe.

“What is important in a campaign, it is not the decibels but the number of voters. The question is not where it screams the most but where there will be more voters: I think it will be us ” , he adds about blaring campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy on identity and immigration, two FN favorite themes.

“Soft mix”
In the TNS Sofres barometer for Le Figaro Magazine published Friday, Alain Juppe is high on the political figures in the Socialist Party supporters (47%, +9), to the right (48%, +4) and Republicans (62 %, +4).

However, the rating of Nicolas Sarkozy significantly eroded among supporters of the LR (51%, -13), the right (37%, – 9) and the National Front (21%, – 11). It remains at 8% among supporters of the PS. More bad news in a week marked by insults of all kinds.

For new line of attack, the predecessor to Francois Hollande, who performed the opening left in 2007, Alain Juppé accused of derailing the primary. On France Inter on Tuesday, the former prime minister had invited them to the polls “disappointed hollandisme” and the “National Front voters who suddenly open their eyes” .

Election Strategy

“If some want to be candidates for the primary from the left, they expect Hollande” , launched Wednesday evening Nicolas Sarkozy at a public meeting in the Oise.

“When we try to get elected with the votes of the left, we are preparing to implement a policy that will give pledges to the left. When doing ambiguity electoral strategy, we are preparing for an ambiguous policy ” , he continued in a clear allusion to the mayor of Bordeaux.

“When one claims to represent the ‘middle ground’, we are preparing to small arrangements, mixing a little left with a little right. (…) The soft alternation is prepared ” , he added. A parallel with the “soft left” Martine Aubry, in 2011, was denounced at the place of Francois Hollande.

The replica of the camp Juppe did not expect: “And will be elected by extreme right voters, it would give what? ” Wrote Gilles Boyer Thursday on Twitter.

“If Nicolas Sarkozy is seen as being more and more extreme, more and more dangerous in some ways it will mobilize against it,” says campaign manager – told Reuters.